Christmas 2025: Is lamb the new turkey?

Christmas 2025: Is lamb the new turkey?

Grocery sales reached a record £13.8bn this Christmas, with shoppers spending on average £476 at supermarkets during the festive month. AHDB’s latest insights reveal surprising winners in festive meat and dairy trends.

As forecasted in the Christmas predictions article, AHDB shared that despite nearly half of consumers claiming they were planning to cut back on overall Christmas spending, food remained a ‘protected spend’ in the eyes of consumers, alongside children’s gifts and Christmas trees (Sparkminds, November 2025), and total grocery volumes were up 1.1% (Worldpanel by Numerator, 4 w/e 28 December 2025).

Total meat, fish and poultry (MFP) volumes were up 0.8% (Worldpanel by Numerator, 4 w/e 28 December 2025), with festive red meat cuts performing particularly well, outperforming the total grocery market.

Surprisingly, turkey was the clear casualty this Christmas, as shoppers cut back on whole birds and primary cuts, and as a result, primary volumes declined by 12.0% year-on-year.

Instead, lamb was the runaway success of the season, despite reduced demand throughout much of 2025. In the prime Christmas shopping weeks (two weeks ending 28 December 2025), leg roasting drove overall lamb performance, with a 24.7% increase in volumes purchased. Targeted promotions were particularly effective, as shoppers clearly responded to value-led deals and the promise of a festive centrepiece.

Beef roasting joints roasting joint volumes were up 8.6%, but pork shoulder roasting joints performed especially well, with volumes purchased increasing by 43.7% (2 w/e 28 December 2025).

There were an additional 504,000 occasions where cheese was purchased during the run-up to Christmas 2025. Cow cheese had a particularly successful Christmas, with total volumes up by 4.4% year-on-year. Cheddar (+6.3%), Stilton and British blue (+0.8%), and snacking cheeses (+26.7%) all contributed to this growth, likely used on cheeseboards, which AHDB had predicted would be an important part of celebrations for a third of consumers.

As a key accompaniment to many Christmas desserts, it’s no surprise that cows’ cream was also a standout performer for dairy, with volumes purchased increasing by 1.6%.

Cows’ butter had an even better year, with volumes up by 3.4%. This was driven by block butter performance, which saw volumes increase by 6.9%, perhaps being used with crackers on cheeseboards or in festive baking recipes.

AHDB’s Retail & Consumer Insight Analyst, Charlotte Forkes-Rees, said: “It’s clear that Brits are not yet bored of the cheeseboard, but the red meat performance this season suggests that consumers are changing up their Christmas centrepieces, and we expect more people to explore alternatives to turkey in 2026.

“In December 2025, premium own-label products were present in 92% of shoppers’ baskets (Worldpanel by Numerator, 4 w/e 28 December 2025), highlighting that at Christmas, shoppers are willing to splurge on a treat. When promoting their premium ranges, retailers should ensure they emphasise indulgence and added value to encourage consumers to spend that little bit more.”

To read AHDB’s 2025 Christmas red meat report, visit: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/consumer-insight-christmas-2025-lamb-wins-big-turkey-tumbles-and-convenience-is-king To read AHDB’s 2025 Christmas dairy report, visit: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/consumer-insight-cheese-butter-and-cream-drive-strong-dairy-performance-for-christmas-2025