Latest UK flock figures highlight potential tighter supply

Latest UK flock figures highlight potential tighter supply

The UK flock decreased by 785,800 head to 31 million – the smallest flock size recorded for 13 years – the recently published UK June Survey shows.

Defra data indicates the total sheep and lamb population in the UK fell by 2.5 per cent year-on-year from 31.8 million to 31.0 million head in June 2024.

Detailed analysis of the June survey statistics can be found in this December’s Hybu Cig Cymru – Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) Market Bulletin, where Glesni Phillips considers a decline in reductions across most sheep categories. “The female breeding flock fell by 3.6 per cent to 14.9 million head, with those intended for first time breeding driving this decline – down nine per cent on the year, which may indicate reduced replacements entering the breeding cycle,” she reflected.

“The results also indicate the lamb crop – that’s those aged under one year old – fell by 1.5 per cent to stand at 15.2 million head.”

Glesni, who is HCC’s Intelligence, Analysis & Business Insight Executive, said this decrease had already impacted on slaughter availability for the current lamb crop. “Those that fall into the lamb crop period between May 2024 – April 2025 are recording throughput levels that are eight per cent below those of the previous year.

“The reduction in the female breeding flock, particularly first-time breeding ewes, will likely result in a smaller lamb crop next year which could tighten supplies of lambs for both breeding and slaughter in subsequent years.”

The total number of cattle and calves in the UK fell slightly in the same period from 9.55 million to 9.41 million head – a decrease of 1.5 per cent that represents 143,555 head fewer compared to 2023. “This continues the ongoing decline in the UK herd,” said Glesni. “The overall breeding beef and dairy herd, which we define as a cow that has calved, contracted by almost two per cent to 3.18 million head, 14 per cent lower than in 2014 and driven by a five per cent reduction in the beef breeding herd to 1.3 million head.”

She said the dairy breeding herd remained stable at 1.8 million head and consistent with 2014 levels. “A three per cent increase in “other female cattle,” particularly in the beef category where numbers increased five per cent, could indicate farmer efforts to retain younger females as potential future breeding stock. However, this may not offset the decline in the current breeding herd in the short term.”

Cattle aged one to two years saw a marginal one per cent decrease and cattle less than one year old showed a notable decline, potentially impacting the supply pipeline for beef cattle in subsequent years. “The male cattle population decreased by two per cent, though a five per cent rise in males aged two years or more may temporarily support slaughter numbers,” said Glesni. “However, declines in younger male categories – those 1-2 years were two per cent down and younger than one year, four per cent down – could restrict beef production in later years.”

Glesni estimated that these results could suggest beef production may not decline sharply in the short-term following stability in the beef cattle herd aged 1-2 years and the increase in older males. “The notable decline in the beef breeding herd, coupled with fewer young calves and declining female cattle under two years old, does however suggest a potential reduction in prime beef supplies and production volumes in the longer term,” reasoned Glesni.

December’s HCC Market Bulletin can be found here https://meatpromotion.wales/en/market-intelligence/market-bulletin/