Meal deal madness: AHDB says food-to-go market is expected to grow by 40% by 2028

Food-to-go has seen continued growth in 2024, and recent research from AHDB shared that more than £48.2 billion was spent on food in the out-of-home market, an increase of 14% year-on-year (Kantar Out-of-home, 52 w/e 9 June 2024).

The UK food-to-go market is anticipated to see positive market growth over the next few years and by 2028 is expected to increase in value by almost 40% on 2019 levels (IGD). Value growth has been driven by inflation over the last few years, however volume growth has returned in 2024 and is expected to continue and become the key driver of performance from 2025.

Whilst almost half of all food-to-go meal occasions happen as part of a daily activity, such as going to work or after exercising, recent research by IGD highlighted that more than half of food-to-go purchases are less routine and are more likely to be spontaneous and unplanned.

With less daily commuting since the pandemic, there are reduced interactions with the out-of-home market. However, those who commute just one or two days a week can’t resist out-of-home spending and are more indulgent when they do eat out, spending up to 18% more per trip than other commuter groups (Kantar Out-of-home, 52w/e 24 December 2023).

Lunch remains a key meal for food-to-go, and in the first quarter of 2024 71% of food-to-go customers purchased for this meal occasion (IGD). Lunch is well suited for food-to-go, often associated with lower spend than other meal occasions and whether featuring a classic sandwich or something a little different, such as a slice of pizza, meal deals are a big deal when it comes to on-the-go lunches, particularly for consumers looking to stick to a budget.

In the 12 w/e 9 June 2024, there were 92.2 million food-to-go meal occasions which contained beef, lamb and pork, an increase of almost 24% year-on-year with pork accounting for almost three-quarters of this growth.

Sandwiches accounted for 41% of all pork-based food-to-go purchases, while pasties proved to be a popular food-to-go option for beef, accounting for almost 13% of volumes purchased (Kantar Out-of-home).

AHDB Retail and Consumer Insight Analyst, Charlotte Forkes-Rees, said: “The food-to-go market is showing no signs of losing popularity; however, supermarkets and retail chains must continue to adapt to suit changing consumer needs and interests.  

“It’s important for food service providers to demonstrate that food-to-go can mean more than just a meal deal, and we’re seeing quick service restaurants joining the lunch time food-to-go meal occasion, and more and more retailers offering hot options, premium item upgrades and less traditional meal options. 

“Currently, food-to-go is more likely to be purchased by an older consumer (aged 55+), potentially due to increased disposable income meaning they are able to indulge in on-the-go meals more regularly. To tempt in younger demographics, retailers could target new product releases with food trends and flavours that may appeal to broader demographics and the younger generations.”

Read the full food-to-go article: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/consumer-insight-it-s-all-go-for-food-to-go